Almost all indications point to the fact that the general election for president in 2024 has arrived. In what will be the first presidential rematch since 1956, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are scheduled to compete against one another. It is also the first time since 1892 that a current president and a past president have faced one other again. However, in contrast to the situation in 2020, when he was favored against Trump throughout the course of the campaign, Biden is going to have a more difficult time this time around. In point of fact, he has a probability of winning reelection that is no better than fifty percent, and supporters of the current president ought to be aware that Trump has a genuine opportunity to capture the White House once again.
Take a look at the polls that have been made public over the course of the past week. Trump received a bigger proportion of the vote than Biden, according to surveys conducted by The New York Times/Siena College, CBS News/YouGov, Fox News, and The Wall Street Journal. The statistical differences between the two candidates ranged from two to four points. It was reported by KFF that Biden scored three points higher than Trump. Despite the fact that each of those results fell within the official margin of error, when taken as a whole, they present a picture of an incumbent who is experiencing difficulties.
There is more to it than the fact that Biden is in a worse position versus his opponent in the general election than practically every incumbent in the past seventy-five years (with the exception of Trump in 2020). The reason for this is that during the 2020 campaign, it was unheard of for Trump to have a lead of any kind. Not a single poll that satisfied CNN’s requirements for publication showed Trump leading Biden on a national level.
Moreover, in the battle for the presidency in 2020, the states of Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, which gave Biden the upper hand in the Electoral College, were all decided by a margin of less than one point overall. There was very little room for error on his part. On January 12, 2024, Vice President Joe Biden delivered a speech at an event that took place in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
ALSO RELATED: ARTICLE Not the Sun Belt, but the Great Lakes are the greatest route for Vice President Biden to take in order to win reelection. The current situation of polls appears to be more negative for Biden. My previous observations have led me to the conclusion that the president appears to be in a significantly more precarious position in Sun Belt battleground states today than he was four years ago. According to the most recent polling from Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, he is currently more than five points behind the leader.
Since the year 2004, no Democratic presidential contender has been unsuccessful in Nevada. Biden may still win the election even if he loses all of those states if he wins every other contest he won in 2020. This would allow him end with 270-268 electoral votes, which would be enough to win the election. The fact that Biden is falling behind in Michigan is the crux of the matter. He has lost four points, according to the average of polls conducted over the past six months that match the criteria set forth by CNN for publishing.